The Polish industrial sector is currently stabilizing in terms of availability, with the national vacancy rate contracting to 8.2% as of mid-2025. This improvement reflects a successful,
albeit uneven, absorption of new supply nationwide.
While high-demand regions like Podlaskie and Warmia-Masuria have reached a "zero vacancy" status, other areas like Lubuskie (18.4%) and Świętokrzyskie (17.2%) continue
to offer significant headroom for new tenants. This regional disparity is expected to be tempered by a strategic slowdown in speculative construction, which will likely prevent oversupply and
maintain a balanced market dynamic through 2026.
The market is currently a "negotiator’s landscape." While downward pressure persists in regions with high availability, landlords are remaining flexible to secure long-term commitments. Tenants
are no longer rushing into expansions; instead, they are making highly calculated leasing decisions focused on operational efficiency and on mitigating wage
pressure (averaging 36.20 PLN per hour nationally), which continues to influence total occupancy costs.
-
Market Resilience: Despite a 26% year-on-year decrease in construction activity, the first half of 2025 saw a 10% increase in transacted industrial space, signaling
robust underlying demand.
-
The Rise of Renewals: With 54% of leasing activity driven by renegotiations, tenants are showing increased caution, opting to optimize existing footprints rather than commit to
new expansions.
- A national average wage of 36.20 PL/hour for simple tasks highlights wage pressure driven by inflation, posing challenges in high-growth hubs such as Mazovia and
Silesia.
-
Regional Dominance: Mazovia continues to anchor the market, accounting for 32% of Poland’s total stock under construction, even as newer regions like Pomerania show strong
development momentum.
A defining trend of the year was the return of large-scale portfolio deals, which accounted for 58% of the sector's total volume, driven by high construction and financing costs that made
acquiring existing assets more attractive than developing new ones. Significant entries from international funds, such as South Africa’s Emira and U.S.-based Greykite, alongside established
players like Blackstone, underscore the enduring appeal of Poland’s key industrial hubs, including Warsaw, Łódź, and Upper Silesia.
Yields in the sector have begun to stabilize, with prime big-box assets settling at approximately 6.5% by the end of 2024, while high-demand urban assets are valued even more
aggressively at just over 6%. Investor confidence remains underpinned by "nearshoring" trends and the continued expansion of e-commerce serving the broader European market. Despite
the retail and office sectors outpacing logistics in percentage terms, the industrial segment remains a top choice for global capital due to its stable leasing environment and robust
fundamentals.
The retail investment sector in the first half of 2025 has become a vital catalyst for broader infrastructure development, recording EUR 324 million across 20 transactions. This activity is heavily skewed toward
retail parks and convenience centres, which accounted for EUR 205 million of the total volume.
These smaller, decentralized formats are increasingly serving as the "last-mile" bridge for e-commerce, acting as localized hubs for pickup and delivery. With an average transaction size of
EUR 16 million, investors are prioritizing agility and location over scale, focusing on assets that can be easily integrated into modern logistics chains.
As we look toward the remainder of 2026, the Polish logistics market is defined by "moderate optimism." Developers and tenants alike are recalibrating their strategies to thrive in an environment
where efficiency, retention, and regional growth pace are more vital than ever.
Ultimately, the Polish logistics market in 2026 has transitioned from a phase of breakneck horizontal growth to one of sophisticated, vertical optimization. The convergence of a 36 million
sqm total stock, a stabilizing national vacancy rate of 8.2%, and the rise of the "omnichannel" retail-logistics bridge proves that the sector’s fundamentals remain unshakable despite
macroeconomic headwinds.
Moving forward, success will not be measured by the sheer volume of new square meters, but by landlords' and tenants' ability to navigate this "negotiator’s landscape" through flexible renewals,
technological integration, and agile investment in decentralized hubs.
